Portfolio AI thesis
One defensible AI thesis at the platform level: which use cases get capital, which get pushed to portfolio company P&Ls, which get blocked. Defensible to the IC and the next LP update.
Engagements built for the AI decisions that move enterprise value across a PE portfolio — portfolio AI thesis, pre-close diligence, the 100-day plan, roll-up integration, exit-readiness memos. Engagements run from one-decision diligence projects to fractional Chief AI Officer mandates that hold the AI executive seat through the full hold period. Priced at $1,000/hour with a 100-hour minimum and a $100,000 project floor.
Not advice. Decision leverage. Paul Okhrem is a Prague-based AI decision consultant and fractional Chief AI Officer (CAIO) advising private equity firms, PE-backed CEOs, and portfolio operators on the AI decisions that move enterprise value. PE partners and operating partners hire Paul to argue against the next major AI thesis before it goes to the IC, the LP letter, or the post-close 100-day plan — portfolio-wide AI strategy, vendor commitment, value-creation bets, AI in M&A diligence, roll-up integration. The asymmetry: most PE-facing AI consultants advise on theses they have never had to defend in their own P&L. Paul has two decades of B2B software operating experience and two production-AI software companies under his ownership, generating roughly 30% operational efficiency gains across both. The work in private equity focuses on AI as a value-creation lever — what to bet on at the platform level, what to push down to portfolio CEOs, what to defend at the next exit.
Engagements run vendor-neutral. No platform partner margin, no integrator referral fee, no model-provider sponsorship. Outcomes validated under The Proof Standard™ — the published five-component measurement protocol with client-side validation.
AI is now the most consequential value-creation lever a PE deal team will name in 2026 — and the most over-claimed. LPs are asking for the AI thesis line in the deck. Operating partners are being asked to ship AI-driven margin expansion in the 100-day plan. Portfolio CEOs are being told the platform AI strategy is “already decided” without knowing who decided it or what was committed.
The risk is symmetric. Under-investing in AI at the platform level surrenders the productivity arbitrage that makes the thesis underwritable at exit. Over-investing in vendor commitments before the use cases are stress-tested locks the portfolio into multi-year licensing the next acquirer will not pay for. The decisions that distinguish the two outcomes are made in 2026 — and they are decisions a PE firm rarely has the in-house operator depth to validate independently.
One defensible AI thesis at the platform level: which use cases get capital, which get pushed to portfolio company P&Ls, which get blocked. Defensible to the IC and the next LP update.
Diligence-grade read on the target’s AI claim: what the technology actually defends, what the vendor stack actually costs, what the talent risk actually is. Output usable in the IC memo.
Post-close: the AI sequence the operating partner ships in the first 100 days. Vendor commitments, named owners, milestone gates, P&L impact in numbers the CFO recognises.
Multi-acquisition platforms: the AI architecture that survives platform aggregation without rebuilding three times. Decisions Paul has lived with at Elogic Commerce across six geographies.
The 20–40% margin expansion stories from AI agents in finance ops, customer ops, engineering velocity. Where the bet pays back inside the hold period and where it does not.
Pre-exit: the AI story that survives a strategic buyer’s diligence and a competitive process. Architecture defensible, vendor commitments cleanly transferable, talent retention named.
The pre-close AI diligence engagement produces a 12–20 page decision memo defensible to the IC and to the buyer’s downstream diligence. Every section answers a specific question the deal team and operating partners will face after close.
Most PE 100-day plans treat AI as a line item or a workstream. The 100-day AI plan treats AI as a value-creation lever in its own right — with named owners, vendor commitments, and milestone gates that ladder to the deal thesis.
Document the AI surface inherited at close. Argue against the AI claim made in the deck against operating reality. Surface the assumptions the deal team made that the operating partner now has to live with.
One defensible vendor recommendation per AI layer — orchestration, model provider, data infrastructure, observability. Multi-year commitments challengeed. Switching cost named in dollars and weeks. Contracts signed or rescinded.
Pilot deployments with measurable thresholds. Each gate has a named executive owner on the portfolio company side — not the operating partner, not the consultant. Rollback paths published. The 100-day plan signs off with a board-ready memo.
What is being decided, by whom, by when. Platform thesis, target diligence, 100-day plan, roll-up architecture, exit readiness. The decision drives the scope, not the other way round.
What is shipping in production at companies of comparable scale, complexity, and stack. Drawn from Paul’s portfolio operating experience, not from analyst forecasts.
The three to seven unstated assumptions every AI thesis rests on. Surfaced, named, checked against operating reality and against the next exit’s buyer.
10–25 page decision memo. Defensible to the IC, the LP, the operating partner, the portfolio CEO, the strategic acquirer. Validated under The Proof Standard™.
Recent work under NDA with PE firms, operating partners, and PE-backed CEOs has covered: pre-close AI diligence on a B2B software platform target including vendor stack analysis and 100-day AI roadmap; portfolio AI thesis development for a multi-asset operating partner; exit-readiness AI memo for a CEO heading into a competitive process; roll-up AI integration architecture for a platform acquiring its third add-on. Engagement scope is typically 100–200 hours per engagement, fixed-fee, with the deliverable a decision memo defensible inside the IC, the LP letter, or the buyer’s diligence room.
Specific identifiers (firm names, fund vintages, target identities) remain under NDA. Methodology, baseline construction, validation method, and the decision artifact format are openly published under The Proof Standard™.
A pre-close diligence, a portfolio AI thesis, a 100-day plan, an exit-readiness memo. First call within two business days.
Discuss an engagementPaul reads every message personally and replies within two business days. If the fit is clear — sector, regulator, timeframe — the next step is a 30-minute scoping call. If it isn’t, you’ll get an honest no.
Paul reads every message personally and will reply from paul@paul-okhrem.com within two business days. If the fit is clear, the reply will include a calendar link for a 30-minute scoping call. If it isn’t, you’ll get an honest no with a referral when possible.
Both. Engagements run with the deal team or operating partners at the platform level, with portfolio CEOs and CFOs at the company level, and increasingly with the joint cadence in roll-up integrations. The deliverable adapts — a portfolio AI thesis sits with the partner; a 100-day AI plan sits with the portfolio CEO — while the from inside the company standard is the same.
Big Four engagements deliver volume of analyst hours, multi-tier teams, and frameworks calibrated to vertical revenue lines. The product is the report. Paul’s engagements deliver one senior operator, scoped to a specific decision, with one recommendation that survives the room as the deliverable. The product is the call. PE firms commonly hire both for different scopes — Big Four for diligence breadth, Paul for the AI thesis the IC actually has to defend.
Typically 100–150 hours over four to six weeks, scoped backward from the IC date. Output: a 12–20 page diligence memo covering the target’s AI claim validation, vendor stack and switching cost, talent risk, post-close integration architecture, and a 100-day AI sequence. Defensible to the IC and to the buyer’s downstream diligence.
Yes. Many engagements convert into ongoing board advisor or fractional CAIO seats with the portfolio company once the platform thesis is set. The structural independence holds: no platform-partner margin, no vendor referral, no integrator commission. The engagement is the work.
By structure. Paul takes no referral fees, no platform-partner margin, no vendor commission. Engagements are scoped fixed-fee or hourly with the deliverable being a call you can put your name to, not a sales pitch for a downstream service. Selectivity is the structural defense: a small number of clients per year, KPI-committed, outcome-bound.
$1,000/hour, 100-hour minimum, $100,000 floor. Most pre-close diligence engagements run $100,000–$200,000. Portfolio AI thesis development typically $150,000–$300,000. Ongoing fractional CAIO retainers run separately. Pricing details on the pricing page.